History is often shaped by critical moments of decision and action, where choices made or avoided can define the fates of nations. Yet, lurking in the shadows of these monumental events are a series of near misses—moments that could have drastically altered the course of history had circumstances shifted just slightly in another direction. These near misses reveal the fragility of outcomes and the unpredictability of human endeavor.
One of the most notable “what-ifs” occurred during World War II with Operation Valkyrie, the 1944 plot to assassinate Adolf Hitler. The plan, which involved high-ranking German officers, nearly succeeded on July 20, when a bomb was placed in a conference room where Hitler was meeting with his military staff. The bomb exploded, and while several officers were killed, Hitler survived with only minor injuries. Had the assassination succeeded, it is conceivable that the subsequent chaos could have hastened Germany’s surrender, possibly saving countless lives. Yet, this moment of potential change evaporated in the flash of an explosion that did not fulfill its tragic purpose.
Another pivotal moment came during the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962. The world stood on the brink of nuclear war as the United States and the Soviet Union faced off over Soviet missile deployment in Cuba. In the midst of the high-stakes standoff, a Soviet submarine, B-59, briefly lost contact with Moscow and believed it was under attack when U.S. ships dropped depth charges nearby. The submarine’s captain, Valentin Savitsky, was prepared to launch a nuclear torpedo in retaliation. However, the decision required approval from the second-in-command, Vasily Arkhipov, who refused to permit the attack, urging a return to cooler heads. This critical decision not only averted an immediate disaster but also potentially changed the trajectory of the Cold War, emphasizing how a single person’s judgment can impact world history.
Furthermore, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 is often credited as the immediate catalyst for the outbreak of World War I. However, it is lesser-known that the archduke’s visit to Sarajevo had multiple assassination attempts prior to the successful one. Following a missed opportunity earlier in that fateful day, the enigmatic combination of circumstances led to his assassination by Gavrilo Princip, a member of a nationalist group. Had the archduke not taken that particular route on that fateful day, or had earlier attempts succeeded, the powder keg of alliances and tensions in Europe might have kept simmering rather than exploding into one of untold history‘s deadliest conflicts.
Finally, the fate of the United States as a nation could have been forever altered had the Confederate Army been victorious at the Battle of Gettysburg in July 1863. A win would have not only boosted Southern morale but also potentially strengthened the Confederacy’s position in peace negotiations. This hypothetical victory could have led to a far different United States, possibly splintered into separate nations.
These near misses serve as haunting reminders of how close we come to alternate realities. Each moment, each decision, and each human action act as a conduit to another timeline—a history that almost was. Through understanding these significant “what ifs,” we gain insight into the complexities of historical events and the interconnectedness of humanity.